- The Houthis have spent the past year threatening key shipping lanes with missiles and drones.
- The US-led military response has been unable to effectively stop the rebels from attacking the ships.
- A more aggressive approach is unlikely – bringing the conflict to a standstill.
On a blue-sky day last November, a helicopter carrying Houthi gunmen landed on a commercial merchant ship in the Red Sea. Rebels jumped out, took control of the ship and took the crew hostage. They are still in captivity in Yemen.
The dramatic abduction of the Galaxy Leader, which was captured on video, catapulted the Houthis into the global spotlight. In the year since, rebels have threatened major shipping lanes in the Middle East with missiles and drones, disrupting maritime trade.
The U.S. military has led a Western naval coalition in the battle against the Houthis to curb their relentless attacks, but a year of intense fighting has brought the U.S. no closer to ending the threat posed by the rebels — and, for now, a more aggressive approach. does not seem to be the desired course.
“We are not looking for a military solution in Yemen at this particular time,” US special envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking said in a recent interview with Business Insider. He said pursuing such an outcome could bring more destruction to a country ravaged by years of war.
“To pursue such a thing would subject Yemen to more years of death, destruction and military conflict,” he explained, arguing that “it is essential to consider the impact on Yemeni civilians, the impact on Yemen’s economy and infrastructure , the ability to move supplies to, the ability of commercial goods to enter Yemen.”
This restrained approach to the ongoing Houthi crisis leaves the US military engaged in combat operations without a clear path to victory.
“The threat still remains”
The Houthis have launched more than 130 attacks targeting military and civilian vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in a campaign the Iran-backed rebels claim is linked to the Israel-Hamas war. They have hit a number of merchant ships, sinking two of them and hijacking one (Galaxy Leader) and killing four sailors.
Footage released by the Houthis shows an explosion on a merchant ship during an attack. Rebels have used a variety of weapons, including anti-ship missiles, drones and unmanned naval vessels. Photo by Houthi Media Center via Getty Images
Merchant shipping through the Red Sea normally accounts for up to 15% of global maritime trade, the US Defense Intelligence Agency said in a report earlier this year. However, continued Houthi attacks have caused a marked decline in activity along that critical route, forcing ships to make longer and more expensive voyages around Africa.
US warships and aircraft operating in the region are routinely tasked with intercepting Houthi missiles and drones in defense of key shipping lanes. The military has also carried out airstrikes against rebels in Yemen, targeting their weapons, launchers and other facilities.
The Pentagon has said these efforts are aimed at degrading the Houthis’ capabilities, but the rebels still retain the ability to target ships. Just this month, for example, they have launched attacks on a merchant ship and several American destroyers, although they have yet to score a hit on a warship.
Analysts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies said last month that although Houthi attacks on merchant ships have declined, the response – which includes US, British and Israeli strikes – over the past year has been insufficient.
“The threat is still there and it doesn’t seem to be diminishing that much,” retired General Joseph Votel, who oversaw military operations in the Middle East in the 2010s as commander of US Central Command, told BI.
He said US military operations “have clearly been focused on trying to protect ourselves and go after launch sites, production sites, storage sites, maybe some command and control sites – but none of that seems to is hindering the Houthis at all.”
Limited options
Some analysts have said the US should consider a more aggressive response to the Houthis, including greater efforts to cut the flow of weapons and capabilities from Iran.
Brian Carter, the Middle East portfolio manager at the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, wrote in an analysis earlier this month that “allowing the Houthis to extend their gradual escalation campaign is a far more dangerous choice political for the US in the long run than a more decisive military effort would have been.”
The Navy admiral overseeing naval operations in the Middle East has said military action alone will not be enough to stop the rebels. “The solution will not come at the end of a weapon system,” stressed the vice-adm. George Wikoff, who heads U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, at a panel event in August.
However, a diplomatic solution remains unclear. The Houthis have linked their actions to the war in Gaza, but it remains to be seen whether a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas prompts them to stop their attacks. The rebels did not stick to a pause in fighting last fall.
An F/A-18E Super Hornet prepares to take off from Eisenhower’s flight deck. The Nimitz-class carrier has led most of the military operations against the Houthis. US Navy photo
With no end in sight, the conflict has raised real concerns about sustainability. Over the past year, the Navy has fired hundreds of munitions in its Middle East operations, costing more than $1.8 billion and emptying the Pentagon of key missiles that are expensive to procure.
Votel, now a distinguished senior fellow for national security at the Middle East Institute, said the U.S. may continue to send warships to war, but the conflict is affecting other priorities within the Pentagon’s national security strategy, such as China’s growing military. skills.
There are no indications that US naval activity will be shut down. Officials stress that Washington will continue to act against the Houthis to stop their attacks. Although several warships left the Middle East earlier this month, other ships have already moved in to take their place.
“We are committed to ensuring freedom of navigation, ensuring that ships are able to pass through the Red Sea,” said Lenderking, the US envoy.
“Of course, much of the international trade that flows through the Red Sea is geared toward alternatives,” he added. “But we think that the fact that a non-state actor is aggressing the international community in this way is not something that we or the international community should abide by.”
But for now, it’s unclear what will stop him.